Is China preparing for a post-Putin Russia?

One of the biggest mysteries of the Russian-Ukrainian war is China’s current policy. While China is acting cautiously, it seems to be gradually distancing itself from Vladimir Putin. A little-noticed fact is that Chinese President Xi Jinping is cultivating Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin quite blatantly.

Just two weeks before Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he wrung a boundless pledge of friendship from Xi Jinping when they met during the Beijing Olympics. However, some important limitations have since become apparent. China has apparently refused to deliver approved weapons and technology to Russia. China has also abstained on half a dozen UN General Assembly resolutions condemning Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine.

In February 2023, China presented its own twelve-point peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. Ukraine supporters have complained that this plan does not condemn Russia or call for a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, but makes it the first point of the Chinese plan bed: Respect the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively defended. Implicitly, China is suggesting that Russia should withdraw its troops from Ukraine.

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Xi and Putin have limited public appearances and refrained from travel due to their Covid-19 fears, and Putin has become increasingly isolated due to his war of aggression against Ukraine. Therefore, it was seen as a big event when Xi Jinping paid a three-day official visit to Russia in March 2023. It was Xi’s first international meeting since his re-election as president at the National People’s Congress. of 2023, and it offered Putin a rare break in his international isolation.

Although we don’t know what the two leaders said in their lengthy private meetings, nothing seems to have gone well for Putin. His official grand plan was a major second Power of Siberia pipeline linking Western Siberia to China, but Xi clearly said no, limiting Russia’s ability to export gas to China for the foreseeable future. Nor does Xi appear to have approved sales of weapons or sensitive technology to Russia. Curiously, Xi had a separate meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, contrary to strict Chinese protocol.

As a follow-up, Chinese Premier Li Qiangguest Mishustin, his Russian counterpart, in Beijing for an official visit at the end of May. Mishustin is the most senior Russian official to visit China since the invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. On the second day of his visit, Xi Jinping received Mishustin at the Great Hall of the People, once again completely beyond the ordinary bounds of Chinese and Russian protocol.

If there’s a greater respect for protocol than the Chinese leadership, it’s probably Putin. Despite all the greetings from and to Putin that Xi and Mishustin exchanged, an obvious question arises: why was Mishustin invited and not Putin? This cannot have been welcomed by the Russian leader.

Putin seems to have given his answer. Mishustin is one of thirteen permanent members of the Security Council, Russia’s highest decision-making body which meets roughly every ten days, still chaired by Putin. Usually all but one or two permanent members are present. Mishustin assisted on May 15, the last meeting before his trip to China, but he was missing both May 26 And June 2 after his return from his triumphal visit. The reasons for absence from a Security Council meeting are never officially given.

This old-school Kremlinology is perhaps the best evidence we have that China is looking beyond Putin and seeking to cultivate alternative relations in Russia. Such objective observations are better than dubious rumors and can potentially tell us a lot. First, it seems clear that China’s limitless friendship with Russia actually has many limits, as noted above. China is presumably more afraid of secondary US and EU sanctions than it is interested in supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Second, China asserts that universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter, must be strictly observed, which means that it opposes the Russian invasion on principle. Third, the Chinese have shown their distrust of Putin and they might be looking at Mishustin as a credible alternative. Whether it’s realistic is irrelevant.

Fourth, by apparently excluding Mishustin from his last two Security Council meetings, Putin signaled that he had paid attention and did not like these recent developments. Standard procedure would have seen Putin call Mishustin to the Security Council to report what he had learned in China.

Mishustin has carefully avoided saying anything in public about the war in Ukraine or his visit to China. His father is considered to have served in the KGB, and he was both the head of Russia’s tax service and a wealthy investment banker. Mishustin is often overlooked in the analysis of power dynamics in Russia today, but his relationships with Putin and China need to be watched carefully.

Anders slund and Andrius Kubilius have just published the book Reconstruction, Reform, and EU Accession for Ukraine.

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The opinions expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Atlantic Council, its staff or its supporters.

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Image: Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during a meeting at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China May 24, 2023. (Sputnik/Alexander Astafyev/Pool via REUTERS)