A statement issued by the group’s leaders recently revealed that these restrictions would cover Russia’s exports of industrial machinery as well as tools and technology that serve the Russian war efforts, along with efforts to stifle Russian revenues from the trade in minerals and diamonds.
This trend reflects the insistence of the major countries on their supportive stance towards Ukraine, and comes in connection with the sanctions packages imposed by the United States of America and European countries.
Although the leaders of the Group of Seven summit in Hiroshima pledged to tighten sanctions against Russia, this is evidence that the West is still strongly behind Ukraine in its battle against Russia. However, this also represents a “sign of Western failure,” according to the expression of the British writer, Larry Elliott, in an article. To him in the British newspaper “The Guardian” on Sunday.
The author justifies this by saying:
- “Despite talk of a quick victory, there was no fatal blow in the economic war (..) and the lack of immediate success should not come as a great surprise.”
- There is no doubt that Russia is feeling the impact of the sanctions, and so is the West.
- One reason claims that Russia’s economy is on the brink of collapse are exaggerated is that Western policymakers know their constituents are suffering from the side effects (rising energy and food prices and lower living standards).
- Despite all this, public support for Ukraine in the G7 countries remains strong.
While the writer believes that the Kremlin is showing stronger economic resistance than expected by the Group of Seven, he stresses that “the past 15 months revealed the difficulties in imposing an economic blockade on a country that enjoys natural and technical resources like Russia,” explaining that “the new measures were designed to disrupt the Kremlin’s ability to provide material for his military, fill loopholes, reduce international dependence on Russian energy, and also limit Moscow’s access to the global financial system.
varying penalties
For his part, the visiting professor at the Faculty of Orientalism at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow, Rami Al-Qalyubi, says in exclusive statements to the “Sky News Arabia” website:
- If we look at the Western sanctions imposed on Russia so far, the most serious of them is “the embargo on Russian oil transported by sea in the European Union, as well as the European countries cutting off Russian gas one by one, because this sector is the most sensitive for Moscow’s economy.”
- As for any other sanctions, they are disturbing on specific sectors, but they do not affect the level of the Russian macro economy, which showed a high degree of resilience that the West did not expect, just as Russia did not expect military resilience in Ukraine, which led to the prolongation of the conflict.
- Likewise, any unilateral sanctions are ineffective, because in order to influence any country economically, there must be opportunities for international sanctions against it, as happened with North Korea and Iran, for example, “and this is impossible in the Russian case, because Russia and China will not allow sanctions to be passed through the Security Council.” “.
Al-Qalyubi points out that “there is an option for the West to impose secondary sanctions on those who deal with Russia, as is the case with Iran, but the West has not reached this point, perhaps realizing the danger of removing Russia from the world map in the fields of energy and food in particular.”
The visiting professor at the Faculty of Orientalism at the Higher School of Economics in Moscow believes that these recent decisions related to Russia are “further evidence of the failure of Western sanctions,” adding, “If we look at the previous sanctions, they did not restrain countries such as North Korea, Iran and Syria from moving forward with their policy, so how Affect a country the size of Russia?
- The Russian economy contracted by 2.1 percent last year, compared to a growth of 5.6 percent on an annual basis in 2021, according to what was announced by the Russian Federal Statistics Service.
- The International Monetary Fund expects 0.7 percent growth this year for the Russian economy.
Returning to the Guardian article, the British writer points out that “there are reports of brain drain from skilled workers and a shortage of spare parts, but this will not lead to the immediate collapse of the Russian economy, but in the long term it will be factors – if left unaddressed – that would slow down the economy.”
Interestingly, some Russians acknowledge that the war has had an impact. Last September, the National Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences issued an assessment in which it acknowledged that the sanctions shock had affected almost every part of the economy.
Difficulties in obtaining raw materials and components were among the most acute, he said.
According to the report, “Despite the seriousness of these problems, the authorities managed to stop the inflationary rise in the economy fairly quickly, prevent bank panic, ensure the smooth functioning of the payment system, and return the ruble to previous levels.”
Europe punishes itself!
For his part, an expert on European affairs from Brussels, Muhammad Ragai Barakat, indicates in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia” that:
- All these sanctions, whether imposed by the European Union and the Group of Seven, with various firmnesses, “did not deter Russia from continuing the war in Ukraine.”
- These sanctions led – as everyone knows – to negative consequences for the economies of the countries that imposed the same sanctions.
- The European Union, for example, was greatly affected by these sanctions with regard to the import of energy sources at prices different from what was the situation before the war.
Barakat continues: “The fact that the G7 countries and other countries continue to think about imposing new sanctions indicates that these countries are unable to confront Russia (..) I do not want to say that Russia is winning in this field, but the continuation and increase of sanctions, their escalation and increase in size, as well as an increase in the number of The people who are being sanctioned means that the countries that are imposing the sanctions have not achieved the desired results.”
He concludes by saying, “I think that public opinion in Europe began to feel the insignificance and ineffectiveness of these sanctions, and that it is he who is being punished for imposing these sanctions. Some European politicians even began, albeit indirectly, to say that these sanctions are not enough.”
Three ‘questionable’ assumptions
In his aforementioned article, British writer Larry Elliott explains that there are three questionable assumptions that reinforced the West’s belief that the economic war would end quickly:
It is that Russia will run out of money, and therefore will not be able to finance its military action.
However, the energy embargo and the freezing of Russian reserves held by Western central banks have proven to be less effective measures than envisioned.
While the volume of Russian oil and gas exports has decreased, the rise in prices means that the value of exports has not been affected. Russia also offered to supply oil and gas at a discount and found plenty of ready buyers, most notably China and India.
Is that the entire world community will unite against Moscow.
The writer refutes that assumption, saying: This type of optimism proved wrong, because many countries in Africa and Asia refused to condemn Russia in a vote of the United Nations at the beginning of the war and instead abstained from voting.
And this lack of global support for Ukraine made it possible for Russia to circumvent sanctions.
is that Russia in 2023 is no different from the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
On this “questionable also” assumption, the writer uses a research paper by the American economist James Galbraith, in which he said that “Russia has an excellent educational system, a lot of technical knowledge, and it has the factories that Western multinational companies have built since the end of the Cold War.
The sanctions provide an incentive for the Russians to substitute locally grown products for Western imports.
“Although some technologies still need to be mastered, Russia does not lack any basic ingredients – food, fuel, materials, scientific and engineering talent,” Galbraith said.
War takes many forms
And from St. Petersburg, the head of the Russian-Arab Cultural Center, Dr. Musallam Shaito, indicates in exclusive statements to “Sky News Arabia Economy” that:
- The war against Russia takes many forms (militarily, politically and economically) under the leadership of the United States of America.
- “Sanctions are being imposed under Washington’s leadership aimed at exerting pressure and intimidation, including intimidating countries that do not join the sanctions,” he said.
- Sanctions have a negative impact, but not at the same level as European countries.
European economies have been affected by the sanctions, in light of the high cost of living, while in Russia life seems normal, and goods are produced locally, and all services.
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