Russia’s war machine has reached a “turning point” in its invasion of Ukraine, experts say, with missile reserves running low and remaining weapons being squandered in pointless attacks that are foiled by sophisticated western air defences.
Damien Spleeters, deputy director of operations at Conflict Armament Research (CAR), told i that there was clear evidence that key Russian weapons and components were now running out.
His team’s analysis of missiles fired on Kyiv indicates that much of the Kremlin’s reserves built up in the months before the invasion began in February 2022 are now depleted.
“In March, two months ago, my researchers found Russian missile remains, which for the first time contained components that were made after the invasion started – in August 2022,” he said. “In Kyiv two weeks ago we opened up another Russian cruise missile with some components made after the invasion.
“This is a turning point, in that the big strategic reserves acquired before the war may now be running out.”
CAR is a UK-based weapons tracking organisation that provides data to the US State Department,
Ian Williams at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, says that Russia has used more than 5,000 missiles and “one-way attack drones” since February 2022 and expended “much of its pre-war stockpile of precision-guided missiles”.
He agrees with Mr Spleeters that Russian reserves are probably desperately low. “I think we are now at the point where they are burning right through their strategic reserves and they’re going from paycheck to paycheck, and this limits their ability to conduct effective strikes. We’re seeing opportunistic flailing on Russia’s part,” he told i.
He added that by shooting down nearly all the weapons launched in Monday night’s attack, including the six Kinzhal “hypersonic” projectiles, Ukraine had demonstrated again that “Russian ballistic and cruise missiles are manageable threats and can be countered effectively through active and passive defences”.
He questioned the strategy behind the barrage on Kyiv. “Why would they launch some of their best missiles at one of the most heavily defended sites in Ukraine? It doesn’t seem logical. But much of Russia’s strategy has not seemed logical.”
Mr Williams warned that the attacks were not about to stop completely. “Replenishing Ukraine’s air defence capacity should remain a priority for Western military aid for the foreseeable future,” he said.
But Western sanctions are biting. Sergey Aleksashenko, former Russian finance minister, and member of board of Free Russia Foundation, has said that parts from washing machines are being used to make missiles.
A key issue for Western allies seeking to further degrade Moscow’s offensive capabilities is stopping the import of vital hit-tech weapon components. It is no secret that some are leaking in via China and Turkey.
China’s fear of being hit by heavy secondary US sanctions has certainly limited the number of components getting into Russia. Some commentators, such as Mr Aleksashenko, have said that the West may have to step up the threat of sanctions to ensure fewer still get through.
Mr Spleeters said this was already happening, and that regulators in Washington and Brussels appear ever more determined to seek out and punish firms that are still supplying weapons components to Moscow in breach of sanctions.
“There is huge interest now in the State Department and in Brussels to track down these suppliers,” he said. “We are able to trace the route of components from manufacturers to middlemen and suppliers and triangulate the data, to see how the components are getting there.”
He said some firms were very keen to co-operate with the auhtorities in order to avoid swingeing penalties.
Last week, for the first time since the war in Ukraine began, the EU proposed sanctions on seven Chinese companies for supporting Russia’s war machine.
The firms, accused of selling equipment that could be used in weapons, are listed in a new package of EU sanctions seen by the Financial Times. Some of the companies have already been placed under sanction by the US.