China's next move in Russia's war

Samantha Hawley: Hi, I'm Sam Hawley, coming to you from Gadigal Land. This is ABC News Daily. China says it's sending a peace envoy to Ukraine, but the prospect of Beijing brokering a deal to end the war has been met with scepticism. Instead, fighting looks set to enter a second more violent and possibly decisive stage. Today, our global affairs editor John Lyons speaks to us from the capital Kyiv about life on the ground and what comes next in the war. John, you're in Ukraine at the moment covering the war. I just want you to give me a sense of what it's like there, what's been happening while you've been on the ground?

John Lyons: It's quite strange here in Ukraine at the moment because during the day everything seems quite normal. People are going about their business, they're off to work. You know, you'll see them sort of having a lunch at a cafe or a restaurant or something, and then come night time, it takes on more of a sort of an ominous sense. Most nights now there are Russian attacks, missiles and drones being fired into Ukraine. The air raid siren will go through the night and often, you know, 4am, you're woken up by that sound. And anybody who's lived through the sound of those air raid sirens, they're quite eerie. It's actually a terrible way to sort of wake up. And there's a real sense here that something much worse is is around the corner.

Samantha Hawley: Oh, gosh, that's horrible. You mentioned a sort of increase in attacks in recent days. And as I read it, that's got to do with the Russian holiday commemorating Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. So just tell me about that.

John Lyons: Well, it seemed as if for Vladimir Putin and the Russian military, that that was in some ways a time that they wanted to increase their attack. So it was like the Russians were trying to make a statement. I think they were also trying to capture the city of Bakhmut. They wanted to announce, I think, of another victory, if you like, and they surged their troops around Bakhmut in the days leading up to Victory Day. They haven't got it, of course. The Ukrainians are putting in a hell of a fight to try to sort of keep the Russians from taking complete control of Bakhmut, but it seemed to be tied to the Victory Day celebrations.

Samantha Hawley: Okay, so this victory Day celebration in Moscow last week, President Putin, he spoke at that you know, he stood up in Moscow's Red Square to address the nation, to address the Russian people. What did he have to say, John?

John Lyons: Well of course that commemorates, you know, the victory of the Russian army over Nazi Germany in World War Two. And essentially what Vladimir Putin said was this is a real war. Now, large parts of the world are against Russia. They destroying our monuments around the world. It was very much an appeal to that sort of nationalist sentiment that we are the victims in Russia. The world is many people around the world and countries are trying to damage us. And therefore this war in Ukraine, in a way it's a fight for Russia. It's a right for our, fight for our survival. So he was very much trying to pitch that sort of message.

Samantha Hawley: Yeah, sure. Okay. So we know, John, that Ukraine is receiving a substantial amount of support, of course, from the West in this war against Russia. But Russia has its allies, too, doesn't it? And I want you just to tell me about China, because things seem to be shifting somewhat. Beijing seems to be more actively interested now in this conflict.

John Lyons: Well, yes, there was a fascinating phone call a couple of weeks ago on April the 26th, where China's president, Xi Jinping, finally spoke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Translator speaking on behalf of Xi Jinping: Right now there is an opportunity to give new energy to the relations between Ukraine and China. It's hoped all sides will reflect on the crisis and seek a new way for everlasting peace in Europe together.

John Lyons: It's their first conversation since the invasion by Russia here last February, in February last year. President Zelensky has wanted to speak to the Chinese leader who has avoided him. And finally, though, Xi Jinping has intervened and in my view, finally China is making a play. I think this is really significant. I think this is China's moment. I think Xi Jinping has sat back and watched this and he's had all these photo opportunities with Vladimir Putin, very morally supportive of Russia. And finally, I think he saw an opening here. So he spoke to President Zelensky. And according to the readouts that both sides put out later, what happened was President Xi basically said, I want to send an envoy, a diplomatic envoy to Kiev, to start to look at a peace process.

Reporter: China will send a special delegation of the Chinese government to Ukraine to conduct in-depth communication on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

John Lyons: Essentially, this envoy will go between Ukraine and Russia. And let's start to look at some sort of resolution to this, which is really fascinating when you think about, you know, the United States, of course, for decades has played that sort of envoy role, you know, Warren Zevon's famous song about, you know, the American envoy. Suddenly now China is pivoting and saying, we can do this deal because, of course, the United States can't they can't deliver Vladimir Putin to a negotiating table, but China can. So suddenly China is now sending this envoy, Li Hui, who is a former ambassador of China to Russia. So he's well connected with the Russians. And in a way, this is probably the most likely resolution to this war will be brokered by China, which is quite fascinating when you think about what that means to the world we live in.

Samantha Hawley: Yeah, really, really interesting. But John, do you think this is a genuine effort to broker peace, that Ukraine might actually agree to some sort of deal that China comes up with?

John Lyons: Hard to know, Samantha, because, of course, and my own assessment is that because the Russians militarily now are in trouble, they are clearly on the back foot and Ukraine has now is ready for this new counter-offensive. They're armed to the teeth with all of the weapons, the tanks and everything that NATO has provided. They've all arrived. They've got patriot systems now that can shoot down missiles. So in a way now, I think what Ukraine will do in the next few days or weeks, they'll have that counter-offensive and see how they go. If Ukraine can surge and can have that counter-offensive and can start pushing into Crimea, then I think they'll think we're at a much stronger position to come to the negotiating table if Russia's on the back foot. So I think actually Xi Jinping was looking after Russia's interests when he rang Volodymyr Zelensky. I think that Russia is clearly now in trouble and he's trying to get their great friend, Xi Jinping, to sue for peace in a way. So I think that that's China's agenda. I don't think it's necessarily an honest agenda.

Samantha Hawley: Okay. And the Ukrainians, of course, John, have made it clear from the start that they're not willing to give up any of their land.

John Lyons: Well, that's right. Russia now occupies one fifth of this country apart from Crimea, which they took in 2014. Of course, if you look at that eastern part, you know, the border with Russia between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has now, since February last year, moved its soldiers in and taken over one fifth of the country. So the view here in Ukraine is very strong. We will not negotiate while you have one fifth of our country. Move out of the country, and then we'll start to talk about some longer term peace deal.

Samantha Hawley: Okay. So, John, just give me a sense now, because you're on the ground, you know what's coming next in this war. What are the Ukrainians saying to you is coming in the months ahead?

John Lyons: In the months ahead, Ukraine will make its big military play. I think they're locked into that course. I don't think there's any way out of that now they they don't want to get out of it. There's a gridlock. And there's a sense here, although there's trepidation amongst Ukrainians, this anger has meant we we want to give it a best shot. They've now got 230 of the best tanks in the world that you can get have all arrived. You actually see them coming in on the highway from Poland. It's quite extraordinary to see this massive arsenal of weapons coming in from Poland. So they've got their 230 tanks. They've got 1550 armoured infantry vehicles. They've got their two major Patriot air defence systems that they've come in, one from Germany, one from the United States. And so they're armed to the teeth, in my view. And so their view is right, We've now had 15 months of this terrible situation of living in fear, now we're going to give it back to Russia. We're going to take on your troops seriously. I think they're going to try to make a push into Crimea.

John Lyons: I think that that's going to be part of their new offensive. And I think that then once they have that, if they get that military advantage and who knows what's going to happen, the Russians, I think, are prepared for the counter-offensive. What what the Russians have done by all reports is they've put a lot of mines, trenches and mines and other sort of surprises for the Ukrainians. So if the Ukrainians literally try to push into into those Russian occupied territories, there will be this whole 1 or 2 or three kilometres that will be heavily mined. So it's not going to be easy. And Crimea has been fortified. So this is certainly not going to be easy or straightforward. But the Ukrainians are definitely going to launch this counteroffensive any time. And then I think it'll be a matter of, do they do they push the Russians back? Are they beating the Russians militarily? And if they are, I think at that point, Ukraine will say now we are prepared to accept China's offer and sit down and talk.

Samantha Hawley: So no wonder, John, the people that you speak to on the streets, no wonder they think that things could become more brutal.

John Lyons: That's right. I think the view of Ukrainians is the status quo can't be accepted. We can't have the Russians take a fifth of our country, have murdered, have gone through villages committing all sorts of atrocities, have ruined so many of the cities. If you look at Google Earth this week, there were contrasts between a lot of the cities before the Russian invasion and the cities now, and they're not recognisable. So the Ukrainians view is any negotiation would have to require massive reinvestment by Russia. Russia would have to pay reparations in compensation to help rebuild our country. So unfortunately, I think any negotiated peace is a long way down the track.

Samantha Hawley: John Lyons is the ABC's global affairs editor. The International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin. More than 75,000 atrocities have been reported in Ukraine since Russia invaded. According to the Prosecutor General's office in Kiev. This episode was produced by Veronica Apap, Flint, Duxfield, and Sam Dunn, who also did the mix. Our supervising producer is Stephen Smiley. I'm Sam Hawley. ABC News Daily will be back again tomorrow. Thanks for listening.