Chinese envoy for peace in Ukraine maintains close ties with Russia

He once wrote that China needed a strong Russia. Now the man tasked by Beijing with bringing Kiev and Moscow to the negotiating table is raising eyebrows in Ukraine and among its Western allies who are already skeptical of China’s claims to be a neutral peace broker.

Chinese top diplomat Li Hui to visit Europe as China’s special representative in the conflict, in an effort to help secure a ceasefire and ultimately a resolution to the war, which threatens to descend into a bloody stalemate.

According to Alexey Maslov, director of the Institute of Asian and African Studies at Moscow State University, Li is the best possible choice for Moscow.

Moscow won’t be worried because he really understands Russian politics, according to Maslov, who says he has known Li personally for 10 years.

Li served as China’s ambassador to Moscow for a decade until 2019 and has decades of diplomatic experience in the then Soviet Union and its remnants in the years after its collapse. He is a renowned Russophile and fluent in Russian, among the few foreigners to have received the prestigious Medal of Friendship from President Vladimir Putin.

He is now Beijing’s special representative for Eurasian affairs.

Li enjoys reading great Russian writers such as Leo Tolstoy and Fyodor Dostoyevsky, Maslov said, adding: He really understands the Russian soul, he understands Russian psychology, Russian mentality.

For his part, Li has often praised Sino-Russian relations. Four years after he wrote in a 2016 Russian Foreign Ministry newspaper article that China needs a “strong Russia,” he composed a Trial 2020 for the Communist Party-affiliated Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, writing that Beijing and Moscow would stand back to back and side by side.

Both sides will, as always, show strong support for each other’s efforts to defend each other’s sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and other fundamental interests, he wrote.

Russia is increasingly dependent on this support.

Sanctioned and condemned after annexing Crimea in 2014, Russia invaded Ukraine last year in hopes of quickly deposing or defenestrating the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Instead, his ill-equipped and ill-led forces were pushed back by highly motivated and Western-backed Ukrainian troops, who reclaimed much of the ground originally occupied by Russian forces.

Li’s planned visit to several European countries could be an attempt to allay concerns over Beijing’s diplomatic loyalty, given that China has previously announced its boundless partnership with Russia, lent it rhetorical and financial support. and refused to condemn last February’s invasion.

It is an unequal partnership.

The sanctions have pushed Russia to lean more heavily on China, selling it record amounts of oil that has allowed it to weather the economic storm imposed by its status as a global pariah. Beijing has, in turn, been able to wield growing influence over Moscow, cementing a key ally in the geopolitical confrontation with the United States.

In Li, China is definitely sending someone to Ukraine who is familiar with the relevant affairs and who is able to play a positive role in facilitating the peace talks, Foreign Ministry spokesman Mao Ning said on Thursday. of a press briefing. China will continue to work with the international community to play a constructive role in the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

Indeed, Li’s deep knowledge of Russia should not necessarily be seen as working in favor of Russia, but rather as an attempt to appoint someone who can accurately interpret China’s position, Zeno Leoni said. , who teaches defense studies at Kings College London. He will understand where mediation is possible and where not between Russia and Ukraine.

The Ukrainian government itself has remained publicly positive about Li. Kyiv hopes his in-depth knowledge of our region will help it communicate impartially and effectively with all parties, the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said. Oleg Nikolenko to NBC News in a statement.

To be truly successful in brokering peace, Li will have to bring both sides to the negotiating table. So far, both sides are far from that point.

Ukraine demanded the full restoration of its territorial integrity, including Crimea annexed by Russia, the payment of war damages and the punishment of war criminals.

Although Russia has not recently declared its goals in negotiations, officials have said they will accept nothing less than complete demilitarization of Ukraine, no NATO membership and regions that organize referendums to join Russia remain part of Russia.

Sending Li as an envoy does not help bridge this trust gap between Ukraine and China, said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a risk management consultancy based in Bahrain, in an e-mail.

Beijing may think its ties with Russia will eventually be seen in a more positive light, if and when Ukraine is willing to talk, he added.

China is playing a long game here, trying to position itself as a peacemaker, to appeal to Europe and others, Horowitz said. They understand it’s long, but they bet that at some point talks are inevitable and throw their hats in the ring.

Li also met with officials from other post-Soviet states that have more difficult relations with Russia, a sign that Beijing wants to carve out a place for itself on the international stage and will not be dictated to by Moscow.

Last year he visited the Beijing Embassy in Georgia, a country that fought a war with Russia in 2008 and said their nations have always respected and treated each other as equals, according to Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs website.

And, in 2005, he met with a Ukrainian delegation in Beijing, website records show, and said China is willing to strengthen cooperation with Ukraine to jointly promote the continued development of bilateral relations. It was a time when Ukraine was ruled by a pro-Western government.

These awareness-raising efforts do not yet seem to have borne fruit. Western officials have so far been skeptical of Beijing’s claims to be a neutral peace broker.

So far, China has not been even-handed when it comes to supporting Russia, a senior Biden administration official said last week after a call between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Zelenskyy.

Another administration official added more details about American thinking on Li’s appointment and China’s stance toward Russia and the war:

They didn’t condemn the invasion, they still buy Russian oil at bonus prices for Putin, they still send dual-use items although they are not lethal aid, they have to show that they can be a true referee.

Skepticism from Ukraine and its Western allies was always likely, Michele Geraci, a professor at the University of Nottingham in the UK, said on Friday.

But for Beijing, Li was a pragmatic choice because the war has created problems for China, which trades with Ukraine and Russia, he said, adding: “They want to resume business with the rest of the world. world”.

Li, he said, was someone who knows Russia and can negotiate with Ukraine. In the end, war is won by the strongest military, not the rule of law unfortunately, he added.