China wants to support Russia with weapons. Indirect support through expertise and investments in Russian military industry is more likely. Experts explain the balance approach.
Munich – The exact role of the Chinese government under President Xi Jinping in the Ukraine war is unclear. China presents itself as a peace mediator. In the background, US secret services suspect arms deliveries to Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. Experts doubt this and assume a balancing act – China is supporting Russia indirectly, but not directly intervening in the war, reports TRT World.
Ukraine war: China relies on indirect support from Russia
China has denied the assumption that the Chinese government will support Russia with weapons in the Ukraine war and dismissed it as pure “speculation”. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also assumed military support. However, experts doubt arms deliveries and assume a different tactic. In conversation with TRT World explains Andreas Krieg, defense analyst at King’s College London, his assumption of the balancing act. “China can consider how it can support the Russian war effort more actively, including in the military sphere, without directly providing lethal assistance.” China could choose a less aggressive option for support, as well as investing in Russia’s military industry. Krieg also believes that China will assist Russia with technical designs and expertise. This is how weapon systems can be built in Russia.
War in Ukraine: China benefits from the conflict
At the same time, the appearance of a “distancing” of military support can be maintained. War explains: “This is a more likely scenario, with China looking for a way not to further anger the West while supporting Russia in military and defense efforts.” China is benefiting from the Ukraine war and has nothing against a prolonged conflict. Beijing would even aim to ensure that this does not end for the time being, because China could benefit from the conflict in the long term with a neutral position. In addition, the armed conflict allows China “to carry on as they want – and to expand the military and international and global influence,” according to Krieg.
The likelihood of China taking a risky and confrontational approach to the West is very slim, Krieg said. However, arguments of direct military support for Russia may be supported with the reappointment of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu. “It wouldn’t be surprising if he encourages greater exports of Chinese weapons systems to Russia and or at least helps the Russians build weapons inside Russia,” Krieg said.
China: Sanctions also hurt the West
If the Ukraine war continues, Putin has no choice but to ask China directly for arms and ammunition. The arms industry can’t keep up with the losses, said Edward Erickson, a former professor of military history in the Department of War Studies at Marine Corps University TRT World. “A Russian defeat does not benefit China because it would allow America to move military forces from Europe and the Middle East to the Pacific. I think the war will continue, so it is inevitable that China will arm Russia.”
On the other hand, such support would weaken the peace broker’s narrative and jeopardize China’s trade interests with the EU and NATO, Krieg said. Sanctions against China would be a response to military support from Russia. Yet Erickson concedes that these are as damaging to the West as they are to China. “Therefore, any Western reaction against China will primarily be a criticism of Xi in the media and at the UN, and not an actual punitive action.” (hk)
#Putin #Ukraine #war #Expert #suspects #balancing #act #Beijing