Threats

Today's D Brief: Russia closes in on Ukraine's Bakhmut; Putin is digging in, NATO says; 2 missiles needed for Huron 'object'; Rep. Khanna on China, AI; And a bit more.

Ben Watson and Jennifer Hlad

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By Ben Watson and Jennifer Hlad

Russia’s invasion forces appear to have begun a major new offensive to take more territory from Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Monday in Belgium.

“The reality [is] that we're seeing the start” of a new offensive, the alliance chief said, “because we’re seeing what Russia is just now, what President Putin [is] doing now is sending thousands and thousands of more troops, accepting a very high rate of casualty, taking big losses, but putting pressure on the Ukrainians.” 

And in a reference to a classic line from military strategists, Stoltenberg noted, “What Russia lacks in quality, they try to compensate in quantity—meaning that the leadership, the logistics, the equipment, the training, don't have the same level as the Ukrainian forces, but they have more forces.”

“For me, this just highlights the importance of timing—it's urgent to provide Ukraine with more weapons,” Stoltenberg said. “The faster we can deliver weapons, ammunition, spare parts, fuel to the Ukrainian front the more lives we save, and the better we support efforts to find a peaceful, negotiated solution to this conflict.”

According to the British military, “The current operational picture suggests that Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors, but that they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect.”

The eastern city of Bakhmut seems to be the focus of Russian forces. The regional governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said in an interview, “There is not a single square meter in Bakhmut that is safe or that is not in range of enemy fire or drones,” according to Reuters, reporting Tuesday from Kyiv. “Bakhmut's capture would provide a stepping stone for Russia to advance on two bigger cities in Donetsk—Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—and give Moscow new momentum after months of setbacks following its invasion last Feb. 24,” Reuters writes. 

A newly declassified U.S. military report points to Iran’s role in Ukraine. The Pentagon’s intelligence analysts just published a detailed look at Iranian-made drones getting heavy use inside Ukraine. The document, which was released early Tuesday with findings as recent as late October, includes multi-directional analysis of Shahed-136s, Shahed-131s, and Mohajer 6 Multirole UAVs. The drones—especially the first two models, which are often referred to as “kamikaze drones” due to their one-way targeting using explosive warheads—have pummeled Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and electricity grid in dozens of missions that began on September 13. The latter model, the Mohajer-6s, are designed to return to their base after carrying out a strike mission with any of the four missiles it can carry. The Guardian reported Sunday that Russia’s navy received at least six of the Mojaher-6s back in November, after Iranian officials smuggled the items via “boats and a state-owned airline.”

The new report compares Iranian-made drones recovered in Ukraine to similar models found across the Middle East, with annotated side-by-side photos isolating, e.g., wing stabilizers, wooden propellers, engine mounts, ignition components, and more. See for yourself how closely the comparisons appear in the Defense Intelligence Agency’s assessment (PDF), here. 

Coverage continues below…

From Defense One

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Welcome to this Tuesday edition of The D Brief, brought to you by Ben Watson with Jennifer Hlad. If you’re not already subscribed to this newsletter, you can do that here. On this day in 1912, the U.S. Navy commissioned its first class of diesel-powered submarines with the USS E-1, commanded by the legendary Lt. Chester Nimitz, at the Boston Navy Yard.

The U.S.-led Ukraine Contact Group is meeting in Belgium today, ahead of the latest NATO defense ministerial, which is a two-day event that also begins Tuesday. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin traveled across the Atlantic for both events; he was joined Tuesday by Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Mark Milley.
“Together, we have committed nearly $50 billion in lethal assistance to Ukraine since the start of Russia's all-out invasion last February 24th,” Austin said Tuesday in Brussels at the start of the contact group’s latest meeting, which involves representatives from 54 countries stepping up in Ukraine’s time of need. “It isn't just our goal to provide equipment; it's to provide full and lasting capabilities,” said Austin. “So today, we'll continue talking about integrating and synchronizing our support so that Ukraine has combat-credible capabilities that matter and endure.”
Why helping Ukraine matters: “This isn't just about Ukraine's right to live in peace and security; it's also about the kind of world that our children will inherit,” Austin told the delegates. “None of us want to live in a world where autocrats can assault their peaceful neighbors, trample their borders, and bombard their people,” the Pentagon chief said. “So we've come together to stand up for a world where rules matter, where sovereignty is respected, and where civilians are protected.”
“In short, Russia has lost” its war in Ukraine already, Gen. Milley said Tuesday. “For Ukraine, this is not a war of aggression; it is a war of defense. For Russia, it is a war of aggression,” he said. “While Russia has waged this war for far too long, they will not outlast” Ukraine and its allies, Milley said.

  • Apropos of Valentine’s Day, Henry Foy of Financial Times shared this rhyme to mark the developments in Belgium: “Roses are red; Ukraine is at war; They really want jets; But need ammo more.”

Industry status report: “The war in Ukraine is consuming an enormous amount of munitions, and depleting allied stockpiles,” said NATO’s Jens Stoltenberg Monday in Brussels. “The current rate of Ukraine’s ammunition expenditure is many times higher than our current rate of production,” he said.
“For example, the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months,” said Stoltenberg. And that means “Orders placed today would only be delivered two-and-a-half years later,” he said, and emphasized, “We need to ramp up production, and invest in our production capacity.”
Stoltenberg’s near-term forecast: “We see no sign whatsoever that President Putin is preparing for peace, or ready to negotiate something, which will respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine,” he said Monday. “What we see is that President Putin and Russia still wants to control Ukraine. And therefore, the only way to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign nation is to continue to provide military support to Ukraine.”
Developing: Russia’s Vladimir Putin is increasingly traveling around his domain in an armored train, not unlike his dictator comrade in North Korea. That’s according to the independent Russian news website Meduza, which is based in Latvia. “The custom train was last updated in 2014–2015, but Putin only began using it regularly just before Russian troops began concentrating near the Ukrainian border,” Meduza reported Monday, citing at least two sources allegedly close to the Kremlin.
One purported benefit: Traveling by rail avoids public disclosures more common with flight tracking, e.g. Despite a paint job intended to blend in with ordinary trains, there are still telltale signs that Putin’s car is Putin’s car; those include a covered antennae, a car with fewer windows than is customary, and six bearing axes on each car. Read the rest, here. 
Related reading: 

The U.S. needed two missiles to knock down that flying “object” over Lake Huron on Sunday. That’s according to Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Milley, speaking Tuesday from Brussels—and more than 12 hours after Lucas Tomlinson of Fox reported the update Monday evening.
“The first shot missed” and “landed harmlessly in the water of Lake Huron,” Milley said. But the second missile hit its target, and brought it down. These kinds of contingencies are all taken into account when presenting the mission to the president for authorization, Milley said. He also said there do not yet appear to be indications that the three most recent objects shot down originated in China. But those investigations are still ongoing.
SecDef Austin’s POV: “A range of entities—including countries, companies, [and] research organizations—operate at these altitudes for purposes that are not nefarious, including legitimate research,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters in Belgium on Tuesday. “That said, because we've not been able to definitively assess what these recent objects are, we've acted out of an abundance of caution to protect our security and interests. That's why we have teams working hard to track down the debris from over the weekend.”
Next up: Senators are set to receive a briefing Wednesday on the known-knowns of the alleged Chinese spy balloon that the U.S. shot down off the South Carolina coast 10 days ago. House lawmakers are set to receive their briefing the following day.
Iran’s president is in Beijing visiting with China’s autocratic leader Xi Jinping. Tehran’s President Ebrahim Raisi arrived Tuesday to China’s capital for the start of a three-day visit ostensibly intended to bring the two countries closer economically, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing Iranian state-run media IRNA. “Another goal of the trip is to ease strains from Mr. Xi’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December, which triggered a backlash in Iran,” the Journal notes. More, here.
Read more: 

The United States needs a “modern national security strategy” to ensure the country leads on artificial intelligence, quantum, small drones, hypersonics, and other advanced technology, Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., told Defense One’s Jennifer Hlad in a recent interview on a variety of national security-related topics. The U.S. must also protect its own airspace and security in light of the recent instances of flying objects, and ensure China does not invade Taiwan, said Khanna, who serves as the ranking member on the House Armed Services subcommittee on cyber, information technology, and innovation, as well as a member of the China Select Committee and the co-chair of the India caucus.
“There have to be some consequences to China crossing the median line”  of the Taiwan Strait, he said. “I don't think that should result in an escalation of military force, because we don't want to have a war over a crossing of a median line. But there have to be other options that we look at, whether those are economic sanctions, whether they are a political consequence, and that's something the committee should explore with the administration. What are the consequences for China engaging in crossing the median line? What are the consequences for testing over Taiwanese airspace? What is the consequence for launching balloons again at the United States?”
Read the full Q&A, here.

And lastly: U.S. Air Force Undersecretary Gina Ortiz Jones is stepping down, and will be replaced—at least temporarily—by Kristyn Jones, the current assistant secretary of the Air Force for financial management and comptroller, service officials announced Monday. Ortiz Jones is the first openly serving lesbian undersecretary, and has been a champion of diversity and inclusion initiatives. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall called the current undersecretary “a tireless advocate for the Department of the Air Force and its people,” and said the department is “grateful for her dedicated service.”

NEXT STORY: Today's D Brief: Pentagon shoots down 3 flying objects; Austin, Milley to Europe; Army explains recruiting hurdles; DOD cyber strategy coming soon; And a bit more.