MORICI: Arming Ukraine is necessary to defeat Russia and deter China
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Since the Second World War, U.S. security policy has been premised on defensive alliances — North Atlantic Treaty Organization and similar arrangements in the Middle East and Asia. And various free trade arrangements under the World Trade Organization to forge common prosperity among allies.
Western strategy has emphasized a strong defensive military posture and economic sanctions. For example, an adequate army in Europe to deter a Russian invasion through the Fulda Gap, significantly arming Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, a capacity for projecting power in places like Iraq and Afghanistan, supporting allies in proxy wars and putting the economic screws to malefactors like Iran.
As long as Russia was the only big threat — and China remained underdeveloped and less consequential — the West did not need a big war offensive strategy.
The conditions underlying decades of stability were upended by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the rise of China and its military ambitions in the Pacific.
Economic sanctions on Russia are inflicting pain, but the pain imposed on European economies from high natural-gas prices is discomforting too.
Russia may not be getting top dollar for its oil from India, China and other Asian outlets, but it’s getting enough cash to purchase Iranian and North Korean weapons and its masses are not revolting.
The Europeans have budgeted about €700 billion to mitigate for households’ high energy prices, and vast sums of private capital to restructure European industry to bear the higher cost of imported liquefied natural gas.
Who has more staying power — Ukraine continually bombarded by Russian rockets and the European and American polities underwriting it or Putin’s regime?
The only legitimate peace would entail Russia withdrawing from all Ukrainian territory, the return of kidnapped Ukrainians and reparations for the damage imposed by its military.
Otherwise, Russians will learn to sell their gas and oil in Asia, get what they need through willing Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs, and rebuild their military and come at Ukraine again and eventually other Eastern European states.
China may conclude it can cross the Strait of Taiwan without the risk of lasting costs.
The only path to legitimate peace in Ukraine — and warning to China in Asia — is to better arm Kyiv’s forces with offensive weapons.
If Russia crosses the line with tactical nuclear weapons or further sabotages European infrastructure, the West should destroy Russian military assets in the Mediterranean, Syria and Libya and cut off its access to Iran material.
Fighting Russia only on Ukrainian soil is folly. No amount of air defences can intercept 100% of Russia’s missiles and drones. Even if only a small percentage gets through, Russia can access as many of those as needed to bomb the Ukrainians into winter cold and darkness and perhaps win a war of attrition.
Deterring China
We can’t win a war in Taiwan alone. The Chinese military could keep out our navy and aircraft unless we accept huge losses.
Beijing must be convinced that from the moment the first rocket hits Taiwan soil, conflict with the U.S. becomes global. And what that means for its access to oil and gas, the U.S. dollar payments system and the safety of any vessel, plane or other Chinese asset anyplace on the planet.
As much as armies, economies fight wars, and no nation is self-sufficient. The economies of scale required to make advanced semiconductors precludes a new autarky as a viable policy.
The CHIPS Act and similar initiatives in Europe and elsewhere could undermine efforts to create a Western prosperity and an integrated military-industrial base unless those are pursued cooperatively.
The Europeans object to the subsidies and buy-America provisions of the CHIPS and Inflation Reduction Acts. We should open participation to our Western allies if they put in place equally accessible programs in proportion to the size of their economies.
Multilateralism is hardly an unalloyed good but with teeth and realistic economic cooperation among allies, it still offers the best path forward.
— Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland.
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